Minnesota sits at +11.0 net, the model's top rating and a 53% title probability, 33 points clear of the next team.
The model went 17 of 19 this week. Its most confident call, Minnesota at 83% over Portland, landed. Its only high-confidence miss was New York's loss to Washington. The week ahead tests the gap at the top: Minnesota projects to 85% over Washington, Atlanta to 78% over Toronto.
Power board
MIN +11.0 net
ATL +7.3 net
GS +4.7 net
LV +4.1 net
NY +3.3 net
IND +2.5 net
The model vs reality
This week the model called 17 of 19 games right.
Most confident call that landed: MIN (83%) — final POR 74–107 MIN.
Where it was wrong: NY (73%) — final WSH 86–83 NY. The model owns the misses too.
Playoff picture
50,000 simulations · 212 games left of the rest of the season.
MIN — 53% title, 100% playoffs
ATL — 20% title, 100% playoffs
GS — 8% title, 99% playoffs
LV — 7% title, 100% playoffs
NY — 5% title, 98% playoffs
The week ahead
NY @ LA — NY 59% to win
WSH @ MIN — MIN 85% to win
GS @ LV — LV 54% to win
DAL @ SEA — DAL 61% to win
PHX @ IND — IND 62% to win
TOR @ ATL — ATL 78% to win
Numbers from the model at dubmetrics.com. Stats via ESPN.